The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Helene will reach catastrophic Category 4 strength by the time it makes landfall in Florida on Thursday, with storm surge potentially reaching 20 feet along certain portions of the coast.
Helene could be the fiercest storm to hit the United States in almost a year, and those in her path are running out of time to prepare.
“A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves,” said the center. Before tropical storm conditions arrive, we should complete preparations to protect life and property by early Thursday.
Helene rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday and will continue to strengthen when it hits the Gulf of Mexico’s record-warm waters. Global warming from fossil fuel pollution is increasing the frequency of rapidly strengthening storms like Helene.
According to the hurricane center, as of 5 a.m. Thursday, Helene had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and was heading northeast at 12 mph.
The hurricane center warns that “additional strengthening is possible” in the hours before landfall, despite predictions that wind gusts in the storm will reach at least 130 mph by Thursday afternoon.
The center of the hurricane, which has the most damaging winds, is projected to make landfall near Apalachicola on Thursday evening. However, its frightening eye is only part of the story.
Hurricane Helene will expand into a large, sweeping monster as it moves north, slamming not only Florida but much of the Southeast.
The storm promises to bring devastating rains, damaging winds, and a life-threatening storm surge, forcing thousands of Floridians to flee and practically putting the entire state on notice.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee described the storm surge threat for Apalachee Bay as “catastrophic and/or potentially unsurvivable” in an update on Wednesday.
The hurricane wreaked havoc on areas of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba Wednesday. Flooding rainfall submerged cars in portions of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, while huge surf waves slammed the coast. Over 50,000 residents in Pinar del Río, western Cuba, lost electricity due to Hurricane Helene’s powerful winds.
Helene’s future track may see worsening conditions. The hurricane will be the fourth to make landfall in the United States this year, and the fifth to hit storm-ravaged Florida since 2022.
“If you’re a godly person, pray, because I don’t really need this,” Port Richey homeowner Rick Way told CNN affiliate WFTS of the possible flooding Helene might produce. “Neither do any of us.”
However, this storm will differ from Hurricane Idalia and other recent hurricanes that have hit the state.
Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry predicts that Helene will become one of the largest hurricanes to hit the Gulf of Mexico in the previous century. The hurricane’s wind field could span from Washington, D.C., to Indianapolis. That implies a heavier storm surge and more widespread consequences, even though the storm’s center is far from the shore.
“Power outages will likely last days, if not weeks, near where it makes landfall,” the meteorological agency warned, citing major infrastructure damage, widespread inaccessibility, and damage to well-built properties.
The storm’s spread brought rain and tropical storm-force wind gusts to areas of the Florida Keys on Wednesday afternoon, and it will continue north and east across the state, reaching Tampa by Wednesday night.
Tropical rain and strong winds could extend throughout much of the peninsula by Thursday morning. Hurricane-force wind gusts will follow soon for coastal locations, including Tampa, by Thursday night.
Here are the most recent developments:
• The storm’s enormity raises the possibility of a life-threatening storm surge: the Big Bend area faces up to 20 feet of storm surge, the most significant threat. Up to 8 feet of surge could inundate Tampa, threatening local high water records, while much of South Florida could see up to 5 feet. On Thursday night, water levels in Tampa Bay and Clearwater might reach record heights, 1 to 2 feet higher than those established by Hurricane Idalia last year. At least 17 coastal Florida counties have ordered mandatory evacuations because of the threat.
• Concerns about power outages in Georgia: Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Director James Stallings said Wednesday that the possibility of power disruptions from Hurricane Helene will be “significant” and “unprecedented.” The hurricane’s winds and rain will hit the entire state, he said, and with the ground already saturated from the present weather system, trees may topple due to the strong winds, causing massive disruptions.
• Virginia’s governor issued a state of emergency on Wednesday, joining four other states: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
• Rescues in North Carolina: Heavy rainfall has already caused deadly flash floods in many areas in McDowell County, North Carolina, necessitating multiple swift water rescues overnight, according to McDowell County Emergency Management. “We urge all residents to avoid unnecessary travel and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways,” county emergency officials said on Facebook, adding that residents near creeks, rivers, or low-lying areas should “temporarily relocate with family or friends to higher ground until the storm passes and conditions improve.” The flash flooding in McDowell County comes as the region braces for the most catastrophic inland flooding threat from Helene.
• Air travel difficulties: Helene is already causing disruptions in air travel, with more expected as the storm intensifies. FlightAware reports the cancellation of over 800 flights for Thursday. Most were departing from Tampa International Airport, which said on Thursday that it would cease all commercial and cargo flights. The impact on flights from Fort Myers, Clearwater, Sarasota, and Tallahassee is significant.
• Schools and universities close: School districts along Florida’s Gulf Coast, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties, have announced closures until at least Thursday in anticipation of Hurricane Helene. Georgia school districts, including Atlanta Public Schools, Dekalb County School District, and Gwinnett County Public Schools, have announced school closures. Several Florida universities have also announced closures due to the hurricane, including the University of Florida, Florida State University’s Tallahassee campus, the University of South Florida, the University of Tampa, the University of Central Florida, and Florida A&M University. Major universities in Georgia, including the University of Georgia, Georgia State University, Georgia Tech, and Emory University, have announced their campus closures, with some stating they will hold virtual courses instead.
Helene Is Huge And Threatens The Entire Southeast
Hurricanes typically cause the most damage to coastal communities, but Helene may not follow this pattern. Because of their size, tropical advisories can travel hundreds of miles from South Florida to Tennessee and southern South Carolina.
Hurricanes typically lose intensity quickly once they cross land, when they lose the warm ocean that feeds them, but Helene will be more stable further inland because it will be both strong at landfall and moving quickly.
As a result, the storm is expected to remain a hurricane in Georgia Friday morning, roughly 150 miles from where it makes landfall.
Tallahassee, Florida, located close inland from the hurricane’s expected landfall, faces dire consequences. City officials warned that Helene “could be the worst storm in the history of the City of Tallahassee.”
“If our community remains central in Helene’s path, as predicted, we will see unprecedented damage, unlike anything we have ever seen as a community,” Tallahassee Mayor John E. Dailey said Wednesday.
We expect the hurricane to pass just west of Tallahassee as a 130-mph Category 4 storm. If that happens, it will be the strongest storm on record to pass within 30 miles of the city since the late 1800s.
At a news conference Wednesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged citizens to enact emergency plans and pack supplies, but to “not evacuate hundreds of miles” owing to the storm’s size and pace.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management has collaborated with Uber to provide free transportation to shelters for Floridians in counties that have declared a state of emergency, he said.
“Remember, you hide from the wind, but you run from the water,” the governor added.
In Hernando County, on the state’s west-central coast, the county commissioner advised citizens under evacuation orders to “get out now.”
In “the most significant forecast that we’ve come up against,” Commissioner Brian Hawkins stated that the county might experience up to 12 feet of flooding from storm surge.
“If the projections are accurate, single-story homes may completely submerge. I cannot emphasize it enough. I’m begging everyone to please stay safe. “Do the right thing, make a plan, and evacuate,” Hawkins advised.
Tropical storm-force winds will spread across the Southeast by Thursday evening, potentially bringing down trees and causing extensive power outages. Atlanta might have wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph during the day Thursday, increasing to 50 to 60 mph overnight.
Helene’s winds could be “life-threatening” and have “extensive impacts across portions of central Georgia,” the National Weather Service in Atlanta warned on Wednesday.
“This could be an unprecedented event for north and central Georgia, given Helene’s expected track record and strength.”
In anticipation of the landfall, Georgia alerted its national guardsmen and state operations center. Residents should avoid driving as the storm approaches and crews attempt to clear the roads, according to Stallings, the state’s emergency management and homeland security director.
Helene may cause unprecedented floods in hilly areas of the Southeast that are far from the coast. Rainfall-induced flooding has posed the most deadly threat to tropical systems in the past decade.
The Weather Prediction Center predicts that heavy rain will accompany the storm on Wednesday, causing fears of “widespread impactful flooding,” including “potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding.”
Thursday, areas of Florida and Georgia, including Atlanta, Alabama, and the Carolinas, face a level 3 or 4 risk of flooding rainfall. A rare 4 of 4 high risk level covers a narrower area ranging from northeastern Georgia to the far western Carolinas, with more than a foot of rain expected through Friday.
The National Weather Service in Greenville, South Carolina, warned on Wednesday that “major to catastrophic flooding” is becoming more likely where the heaviest rain falls.
Helene could also cause a tornado anywhere from Florida to much of the Carolinas on Thursday.
